Earlier today, PatentlyO re-ran last week’s article Intellectual Ventures Flexes Some Patent Muscle, so please take a visit (link) if you were curious what the story would look like in a maroon color scheme …
Nice article, but I did not understand the probability computation.
I think I intended to include a link to this article describing independent probabilities: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability#Independent_probability
Basically, to evade liability, the defendants must prevail in 15 independent events.
That’s because it makes no sense because he is kind of bad at probabilities. But I wasn’t going to say anything. I figured let Patrick have that one.
But here, since you bring it up, let’s review:
Make up a theoretical wholly manufactured in your mind chance of success on overcoming each patent: 90% each. Ignore, in this, the actual merits of each patent and the infringement allegations. Or include it, it doesn’t really matter. Either way the number you pull out of your arse is a number pulled out of your arse. Unless of course the case is a slam dunk 100% or 0% and you want to ignore the inherent instability in litigation where, as I understand it, you have a ~20% chance of the wrong result being reached regardless.
But since they’re individual events, probability theorylol magically applies and thus we pop out with an ACTUAL 20% chance of success overall irl (as opposed to in your imagination where all this is taking place). This is because your made up wholly fictional numbers you put in the calculation were totally correct, and your taking into account the merits of each patent and allegation of infringement totally helped.
Wouldn’t it be easier to just review each application and then make up a wholly fictional chance of success overall rather than putting fictional numbers into a probability equation and then popping out another fictional number? I think it would and indeed it would.
Patrick I loled bro, and I also understand why you demonstrated that bit of probability, because, to some people who are tards, coming up with individual chances of success and then working probability magic will help convince them better as opposed to pulling a number straight from your arse after reviewing the cases.
Although you are correct, there is a strong case for considering them independent probabilities. That of course doesn’t address the small issue that probability theory is not really meant to be used on wholly made up numbers in order to get a meaningful result, indeed, garbage in, garbage out applies very strictly in probability.
In the end, all you’re left with is the same thing everyone knows, you have less chance of winning against 15 patents than you do against 1-14. I’m doing the little thumb in mouth noise right now. Pop weew.
Anyway, Patrick has his fun days on occasion and nobody ever said he was a math major.
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